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Astral Codex Ten’s Open Thread 456 is a weekly community post featuring meetup notices, a survey on valuing AI safety accomplishments and several project updates. It also introduces MNX, a real-money prediction market focused on AI, and Common Notes, a proposed system for adding community notes across websites.
Astral Codex Ten published Open Thread 456, a weekly community post that invites readers to discuss any topic and shares updates on local meetups, an AI safety grantmaking survey, and new projects related to AI markets and online notes. The post is a collection of announcements rather than a report of a single breaking event, and several listed activities depend on reader participation.
The post asks people familiar with AI and grantmaking to complete a survey assigning utility weights to about 80 AI safety accomplishments. It also offers an alternate survey asking respondents to predict how the author would answer the first one. The author says this second version would help distinguish differences in worldview from random variation in how people assign weights. The post links to the surveys but does not provide results.
Other items include a completed Greater Boston general-election voting guide from the Boston ACX meetup group, and notice of meetup changes in Rockville, Northampton, Eindhoven, Great Barrington, Cairo, Portland and Sofia. The author says they are still trying to determine whether a Bay Area guide is possible and notes a San Francisco mail-in ballot registration deadline. The source gives no year for the election or the dates attached to these announcements.
The post also highlights MNX, described as a real-money prediction market on AI, announced by Manifold Markets co-founder and grantee Stephen Grugett. According to the post, users can trade futures tied to AI company stocks, bet directly on company revenues and trade on targets related to the Epoch Capabilities Index. Separately, Goodheart Labs is working on Common Notes, a project described as a version of Twitter Community Notes intended to work across websites through AI-generated and user-written notes, user ratings and a browser extension.
From Community Notices to AI Projects
The thread brings together practical local information and projects aimed at broader questions about AI safety funding, AI companies and online information. The grantmaking survey could gather judgments about which safety accomplishments people value, while the alternate version is intended to help the author interpret variation in those judgments. The post describes data collection in progress, not a completed evaluation or a formal funding decision.
MNX could give participants a way to express expectations about AI companies and selected capability measures through a real-money market. That makes the project relevant to readers tracking how market participants assess AI-related outcomes, but the source does not provide details on trading terms, participation or market performance. Common Notes, if implemented as described, would extend a community-note model beyond a single social platform. Its reliance on AI-generated material, user contributions and ratings raises questions about how notes are produced and assessed, which the post does not answer.
For local readers, the meetup updates and Boston voting guide offer more immediate information. The announcements may help readers find events or consult a guide, but the post itself does not set out the guide’s recommendations or the specifics of every meetup change.
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The Weekly Open Thread Format
Open Thread 456 follows a familiar format stated in the post: readers can ask questions, share updates or discuss any topic. The post points readers to an unofficial subreddit, Discord, a bulletin board and in-person meetups. It also notes that some Astral Codex Ten material is free while some is subscriber-only.
The numbered announcements cover several distinct activities rather than one coordinated initiative. The grantmaking survey builds on earlier work that the author links to, while the MNX and Common Notes items are presented as projects by people or groups associated with the blog. The source does not establish that Astral Codex Ten operates either project.
The post includes a time-sensitive notice for a Bay Area meetup scheduled for Saturday, Oct. 24, at 1 p.m. at Mox in San Francisco, and says a fuller post may follow. Without a publication date or year in the supplied material, readers cannot use that listing alone to confirm whether the event is upcoming or has passed.
“I would once again like people who are well-versed in the AI/grantmaking worlds to take a survey on how much they value various things.”
— Astral Codex Ten author
Survey, Market and Event Details
The supplied post does not state when it was published, including the year for its references to Monday’s registration deadline and the Saturday, Oct. 24, meetup. The status of those deadlines and event notices therefore cannot be confirmed from the text alone. It also does not provide the voting guide’s contents or full details of the meetup changes.
The survey’s sample size, methodology and eventual findings are not given. The post does not say how MNX handles its contracts, who can trade or what safeguards apply to real-money participation. Its comparison between estimates of Anthropic’s API value is presented as an observation about pricing on Polymarket and MNX; the source provides no methodology or independent verification for the figures. The Common Notes description is a project summary, not evidence of its accuracy, adoption or effectiveness. Those details remain unreported.
Responses and Project Follow-Up
The immediate next step for the survey is participation by people with relevant AI and grantmaking experience. The author says the alternate survey should be taken after the first and invites additional responses to support the data collection. The post does not give a closing date or say when results will be shared.
The author says more election-guide updates may follow and is still considering whether a Bay Area guide can be prepared. The post also says a separate notice about the San Francisco meetup may come later. Readers interested in those developments would need to check for follow-up posts and confirm the event and deadline dates against current information.
For MNX and Common Notes, the thread directs readers to the projects but does not announce a launch timetable or a next milestone. Further reporting would be needed to establish how either service works in practice, what participation looks like and whether the projects reach the audiences described.
Key Questions
What is Open Thread 456?
It is an Astral Codex Ten weekly open thread inviting readers to discuss any topic, alongside a set of community and project announcements.
What does the AI safety survey ask participants to do?
The main survey asks respondents to assign utility weights to about 80 AI safety accomplishments. An alternate survey asks people to predict how the author would answer the main one.
What is MNX?
The post describes MNX as a real-money prediction market on AI, with futures related to AI company stocks, bets on company revenues and markets tied to Epoch Capabilities Index targets. The post does not give trading terms or other operational details.
What is Common Notes?
Common Notes is a project from Goodheart Labs described as a community-notes system for websites beyond Twitter. Its planned approach combines AI-written notes, user contributions, user ratings and a browser extension.
Are the meetup and voting deadline details current?
The supplied source does not identify its publication date or year, so the status of the Oct. 24 meetup and San Francisco registration deadline cannot be confirmed from this post alone. Check current local information before relying on either notice.
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