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Hurricane Polo made two landfalls in Mexico and Hurricane Nolo flooded parts of Hawaii in late September 2026. The Northeast Pacific has recorded 20 named storms, well above the 1991-2020 average of 13.5 by that date, with activity boosted by El Niño.
Hurricanes Polo and Nolo delivered destructive winds, storm surge, and flooding rain to Mexico and Hawaii in late September 2026, as the northeastern and central Pacific basins continued an unusually active storm season, NASA’s Earth Observatory reported on September 30. Polo made two landfalls in Mexico, while Nolo — though it stayed offshore — dropped more than 12 inches of rain on parts of Maui and the Island of Hawaiʻi.
According to NASA, 20 named storms had formed in the region by September 28, 2026, nine of which reached hurricane strength. The 1991–2020 average by that date is 13.5 named storms with 7.4 hurricanes. A satellite image acquired September 27 by NASA’s EPIC instrument on the DSCOVR satellite showed several systems active at once across the basin.
Hurricane Polo underwent extreme rapid intensification over unusually warm water, reaching Category 5 status on September 22. It weakened before striking land, making its first landfall in Baja California Sur around 11 p.m. local time on September 28 likely as a Category 2 storm, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Polo then crossed the peninsula and the Gulf of California and made a second landfall near Guaymas, Sonora, around midday on September 29 as a weaker system. The NHC warned of dangerous winds, storm surge, and heavy rains capable of triggering flooding and mudslides in Baja California Sur and Sonora.
Hurricane Nolo, the third hurricane of the season to pass close to Hawaii, did not make landfall but dropped more than 12 inches (30 centimeters) of rain on parts of Maui and the Island of Hawaiʻi. News reports said the storm flooded roads, toppled trees, and triggered landslides, though the Island of Hawaiʻi was spared some of the more severe effects of Hurricane Lala in mid-August. Tropical Storm Rachel was tracking parallel to the southwest Mexico coast, where the NHC forecast strong winds and dangerous surf and rip currents.
US Flood Risk From Polo’s Remnants
Federal forecasters said Polo’s remnants, combined with moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys, were likely to push over the southwestern United States and southern Plains over several days, fueling heavy rain and flood risk far from the coast. The Washington Post reported the remnants posed a serious flood threat to the Southwest and central U.S.
The scale of the season itself matters: as of September 28, accumulated cyclone energy in the Northeast Pacific was more than twice the norm, according to Colorado State University data cited by NASA. Scientists expect elevated tropical cyclone activity in this basin during an El Niño, which has been underway since June, because warm equatorial Pacific water and low wind shear encourage storms to form and strengthen.
The NASA Disasters Program, coordinating with FEMA, is supporting Hawaii’s response to Hurricane Nolo and posting maps and data products on an open-access mapping portal.
How This Season Compares to Normal
The 2026 season has been busy in both the northeastern and central Pacific basins. NASA’s Earth Observatory had already documented multiple storm clusters earlier in the season, including a trio of tropical cyclones in early September and Hurricane Lala’s impact on the Island of Hawaiʻi in mid-August.
By September 28, the count of 20 named storms exceeded the 1991–2020 average of 13.5, and the nine hurricanes outnumbered the average of 7.4. The accumulated cyclone energy measure — which accounts for storm intensity and duration — was running at more than twice the climatological norm, according to Colorado State University. Scientists attribute the elevated activity to El Niño conditions that began in June 2026.
Damage Assessments Still Underway
The full extent of damage in Baja California Sur and Sonora from Polo’s two landfalls was not yet clear as of the September 30 report. The NHC characterized Polo’s first landfall intensity as “likely” Category 2, indicating some uncertainty about its exact strength at landfall.
How much rain Polo’s remnants would ultimately deliver to the southwestern U.S. and southern Plains, and where the worst flooding might occur, depended on the storm’s track over subsequent days. Tropical Storm Rachel’s eventual intensity and any land interaction with the Mexican coast also remained to be determined.
Storm Train and Season Outlook
Forecasters were tracking Tropical Storm Rachel as it moved parallel to the southwest Mexico coast, with the NHC cautioning about strong winds and dangerous surf and rip currents there. Remnant moisture from Polo and Odalys was expected to keep flood risk elevated across the Southwest and southern Plains over the following several days.
The NASA Disasters Program said it would continue posting maps and data products on its open-access mapping portal as new information became available to support Hawaii’s response to Nolo. With El Niño conditions in place since June, scientists expect the elevated activity in the Pacific basins to continue through the remainder of the season, though individual storm tracks cannot be predicted far in advance.
Key Questions
Where did Hurricane Polo make landfall?
Polo made its first landfall in Baja California Sur around 11 p.m. local time on September 28, likely as a Category 2 storm, then crossed the peninsula and the Gulf of California and made a second landfall near Guaymas, Sonora, around midday on September 29 as a weaker system.
Did Hurricane Nolo hit Hawaii directly?
No. According to NASA, Nolo did not make landfall, but it dropped more than 12 inches (30 cm) of rain on parts of Maui and the Island of Hawaiʻi, flooding roads, toppling trees, and triggering landslides.
Why is the 2026 Pacific storm season so active?
Scientists attribute the activity to El Niño, underway since June 2026. Warm equatorial Pacific water and low wind shear — both typical El Niño patterns — encourage tropical storms to develop and strengthen in this basin.
How does this season compare with the average?
By September 28, the region had 20 named storms and 9 hurricanes, versus the 1991–2020 average of 13.5 named storms and 7.4 hurricanes by that date. Accumulated cyclone energy in the Northeast Pacific was more than twice the norm, per Colorado State University.
Could Polo affect the United States?
Yes. Forecasters said Polo’s remnants, combined with moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys, were likely to bring heavy rain and flood risk to the southwestern U.S. and southern Plains over several days.
Source: primary
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